Calafat — Equipment Price Benchmark: the held prices vs the 2026 market
11 August 2026 · basis: as-drawn plant (7,31 MWp AIKO 775 ABC + 16 MWh LFP, pair) · produced by a
5-researcher + 2-adversarial-auditor workflow (~210 sources checked; raw archive
model/price_research_s13_raw.json) · all € ex-VAT unless stated
⚠️ INTERNAL — negotiation ammunition. Never shared with the counterparty, never on outward
documents. Eren/Evren may read via the gated channel only.
1 · The verdicts (audited)
| Item | Held price | Market band, Aug 2026 (verified) | Verdict |
|---|
| All-in solar EPC (7,31 MWp fixed-tilt RO, ABC modules, turnkey incl. MV/PTAB stations + 20 kV route,
ex-DSO tariff) | €445k/MWp DC
(settled in writing) | €420–500k/MWp; retender €420–470k.
Anchor comp: Electrica Satu Mare 3, Jun 2026 — €446k/MWp at 62,5 MWp INCLUDING a 110 kV substation + 3 yrs
O&M | FAIR — mid-band, not generous. The lever is SCOPE, not the unit price |
| BESS 16 MWh (2×8 MWh, supply + install + commissioning, ex-MV trafo/grid) |
€150/kWh (€2,4M)
(not finally negotiated) | €135–175/kWh at this order size; sharp competitive
retender €130–150. Comp: OMV Gabare 600 MWh full-scope €167/kWh (FID Jun 2026) |
FAIR — mid-band. Recoverable ≤ ~€160k, and shrinking (see §3 timing) |
| — module line inside the EPC | ≈ €125–130/kWp implied | ABC project DDP €0,115–0,125/Wp
(the BC-over-TOPCon premium narrowed to $0,003–0,005/W FOB — OPIS Jun 2026) |
slightly OVER inside the bundle — €40–90k headroom + the supply-channel question (§3) |
| — ABC → mainstream TOPCon swap | — | saving only +€0,008–0,020/Wp ≈ €60–150k |
small lever; the AIKO panel is worth keeping if the price holds |
| — inverters (16 × ~350 kW) | inside EPC | €17–21/kW → €95–118k plant lot |
for scope math |
| — PTAB/MV block as drawn (6–8 × 1600 kVA + cells + 2×230 m cable) | inside EPC |
€405–960k, mid ≈ €633k | price OK — but 9,6–12,8 MVA of stations also serves the
BESS: watch the allocation in any scope dispute |
2 · What the adversarial audit corrected (why these bands are trustworthy)
- Hidroelectrica–Enevo comp: report's €627k/MWp used an FX rate that never existed → corrected ~€650k/MWp.
- Rezolv Dama Solar "all-in 0,68 €/Wp" used the MW-AC denominator → corrected 0,54–0,57 €/Wp at EIB's 1.238,9 MWp DC.
- Module band was built on a stale $0,02–0,03/W back-contact premium; OPIS Jun 2026 shows actual transactions at
$0,003–0,005/W → ABC DDP mid revised down to €0,115–0,125/Wp.
- Alibaba "$0,08/W AIKO" struck as a floor — genuine warranted ABC cannot price below the mainstream TOPCon FOB floor;
that is B-grade/grey territory.
- Two "comps" (Ișalnița ~1,1 €/Wp; Aukera debt floors) killed — investment/financing values, not EPC prints.
- A live scope-trap proof: Goldbeck's "722 MWp EPC for €85M" (= €118k/MWp) is physically module-exclusive —
headline EPC awards can silently exclude modules. Scope lists decide what a €/Wp means.
3 · Timing + negotiation implications
- Module prices ROSE ~26% YTD 2026 (China abolished the export-VAT rebate 1 Apr 2026); TOPCon has plateaued,
back-contact is in EU shortage. The €445k settled earlier in 2026 is aging in our favour — hold the seller to it,
and pin the module delivery schedule (ABC lead time ~10–16 weeks to Constanța).
- BESS is a 2026 purchase, not a 2027 one: the 2023–25 price collapse bottomed Oct–Nov 2025; 314 Ah cells are
+~22% in H1 2026 and China's battery export rebate goes to ZERO on 1 Jan 2027. Waiting makes the battery dearer —
lock €130–150/kWh now. (Ties to D68-add: the 16→20,32 MWh option only pays at ≤ ~€93/kWh marginal — at today's market
that option is out of the money; do not pay for it.)
- The scope-parity argument (our strongest card): at €446k/MWp Electrica receives a 110 kV substation and
3 years of O&M at 8× our scale. We accept €445k — and therefore the A-list scope schedule (automation, d(i),
pt.8(13), new-ATR process, metering, buildings, tests) must be complete, with no carve-outs. The market says the
price only works if the scope does.
- Ask the module supply-channel question: official AIKO EU channel (full 15/30-yr warranty service) vs grey
import. If the EPC sources grey (~€0,078/Wp EXW), the module line halves and the warranty is hollow — worth a written
answer before the TEKLİF is accepted.
- Turkish EPCs are active and competitive in Romania (Astor €0,44/Wp at 75 MWp ex-substation; Girişim,
YEO/Emsolt) — a credible retender threat exists if the TEKLİF disappoints, without abandoning the Turkish-contractor
model.
4 · Key comps (audited)
| Deal | Date | Size | Implied price | Notes |
|---|
| Electrica / New Trend — Satu Mare 3 | Jun 2026 | 62,5 MWp | €446k/MWp |
ex-VAT, incl. 110 kV station + 3 yr O&M — the anchor |
| Electrica / Foton — Bihor 1 | May 2026 | 78,8 MWp + 18 MWh | €464k headline; ~€410–430k net of BESS |
incl. 110 kV + BESS + O&M |
| Astor Enerji → Enexus, Alba Iulia | May 2026 | 75 MWp | €440k/MWp | ex-220 kV station; Turkish owner |
| Hidroelectrica / Enevo — Brăila | May 2026 | 45,9 MWp | ~€650k/MWp (corrected) | incl. 110 kV; state buyer premium |
| Ameresco/SUNEL — Rovinari+Tismana | Apr 2025 | 466 MWp | €651k/MWp | brownfield coal land, incl. O&M |
| OMV Petrom — Gabare BESS | Jun 2026 | 600 MWh | €167/kWh | full-scope utility EPC, GWh-class |
| Rezolv — Dama Solar | 2025–26 | 1.238,9 MWp DC | all-in 0,54–0,57 €/Wp | full project incl. dev/grid — scale floor |